Playoff math for the Lions

New Richmond will have a minimum average of 16.9571 in the OHSAA football computer rankings with a win at Greenville Friday and with a CNE win over Williamsburg. If Williamsburg wins New Richmond would be at a minimum of 17.059.

This should put the Lions in the top 8 as the high school sports site www.jjhuddle.com projects a 16.61 average needed for a Region 12 playoff berth.

But it would be nice to have a little breathing room and for that to happen the 8-1 Lions need some outside help from at least two of its defeated opponents.

New Richmond’s final Harbin average goes go up by .4592 for every win by a defeated opponent over a Division IV team and .408 for an opponent’s win over a Division 5 team. The best bets for help appears to be Mariemont and Bethel.

New Richmond would be at 17.4163 for CNE win or 17.4673 with Williamsburg win and a win by Mariemont over Madeira.

A win by Mariemont over Madeira and a win by Bethel over Bishop Brossart would put the Lions at 17.8247 or 17.8753 depending on who wins the CNE-Williamsburg game. This should put the Lions solidly in the playoffs.

A win by Batavia over Blanchester would mean another .4592 for the Lions and would make up for either a Bethel or Mariemont loss or give the Lions 18.2839 or 18.3345 total if all three teams win.

New Richmond’s other defeated opponents are Deer Park, East Clinton and Western Brown and all three are underdogs Friday. Deer Park (1-8) plays Reading (5-4), East Clinton (6-3) plays Clinton Massie (9-0) and Western Brown (4-5) plays Portsmouth (6-3).

However, nothing can be taken for granted when it comes to the Ohio High School Athletic Association Harbin computer ratings. Just ask the 2002 New Richmond team that went 9-1 and missed the playoffs by .338 in the final rankings.

Jackson, McNicholas, Franklin and Eaton could pass New Richmond with wins and key wins by their defeated opponents should the Lions fail to get any help from their defeated opponents.

McNicholas would have to beat Hamilton Badin and then hope for wins by Indian Hill over Wyoming, Chaminade-Julienne ove Kettering Alter and Middletown Fenwick over Dayton Carroll.

Jackson (7-2) would have to defeat 8-1 Zanesville and then have Waverly (3-6) defeat Scioto Northwest (2-7), Vinton County (1-8) defeat Nelsonville (7-2) and Chillicothe (1-8) defeat Logan (9-0).

Eaton (7-2), currently ranked one spot behind the Lions in 9th place, could get as high as 17.8 with a win over Preble Shawnee (3-6) and a win by Bellbrook (1-8) over Milton-Union (3-6), Talawanda (1-8) over Norwood (3-6) and Greenon (2-7) over Northwestern (1-8).

Franklin, Indian Hill and Hillsboro cannot pass the Lions unless they lose at Greenville.

New Richmond could move up as high as 5th in the Region 12 rankings with a win at Greenville and losses by Goshen, Springfield Shawnee and Washington Court House.

A loss by Shawnee is doubtful since their opponent is winless Dayton Stebbins, but the Braves must hope for upsets by Urbana (5-4) over St. Paris Graham (7-2), Kenton Ridge (4-5) over Tippecanoe (7-2) and a win by Tecumseh (8-1) over Bellefontane (8-1) to stay ahead of New Richmond.

Washington Court House will have minimum average of 17.4914 with a win making it hard for NR to catch without wins by Bethel and Mariemont. Key games for Court House would be wins by Circleville (3-6) over Logan Elm (7-2), Hillsboro (7-2) over Greenfield McClain (5-4) and Western Brown (4-5) over Portsmouth (6-3). A Western Brown win would be a push since the Lions also own a win over the Broncos.

A win by current No. 5 Goshen (7-2) over West Carrollton would put the Warriors into the top four as a home game in the first round. A loss would drop Goshen below a winning New Richmond and onto the Region 12 bubble.

Current No. 4 Monroe (7-2) plays Northridge (1-8) and won’t move up in the rankings much in the rankings.

No. 3 Wyoming (9-0) plays Indian Hill 6-3) and should remain in top 4 even with a loss. Indian Hill cannot catch the Lions if they win at Greenville.

Current No. 1 Chaminade-Julienne faces an uphill battle against defending state Division IV champion Alter but most likely will remain in the top 4 even with a loss. No. 2 Logan Elm should also make the playoffs with a loss but would lose a first-round home game.